Match: Lorient v PSG 19/1/08 (17:10 cet)Average odds (1X2): 2.51 2.87 2.82
This is definitely not a good time for Lorient to be playing against PSG. The capital club have started the new year with a real bang, first thumping Lens 3-0 and then Valenciennes 4-0 in the midweek Cup.
Suddenly, the pressure is really being lifted off manager Paul Le Guen, especially as the team have a cup semi final to look forward to. PSG players are now going to have their tails really up and confidence will be high. They have played some great football recently - the sort that many people expected from them this season - but, the question is whether or not it can continue.
Facing Lorient, they won't be coming up against a side that's consistent in attack. This will be a slow paced game and I actually expect the visitors to be the team that does most of the attacking.
Lorient recently lost their last match, ending their 8 game unbeaten run, and they will find it tough against the best away side in Ligue 1. Except for the injury to Didier Digard (PSG), both squads should be in perfect condition. Preference goes to the visors to pick up at least a point.
Leaning X2
Match: Auxerre v Strasbourg 19/1/08 (20:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 1.96 3.01 3.83
Auxerre will look to build upon their midweek cup win when they take on Strasbourg. It took a last-minute goal to beat Marseille 1-0 and send the Burgundy club through into the semi finals. Still, this will be a major confidence boost for Jean Fernandez’s men, but now attention must turn to ligue matters, and this is an important match against a direct rival near the bottom of the table.
Auxerre are just 3 points clear of the relegation zone whilst their opponents are only a point further ahead. Auxerre at home are traditionally strong and so far this season only 4 teams in Ligue 1 have won more in front of their own fans than AJA.
Strasbourg have been going through a tough period and won just 1 of their last 8 games. They produced an awful performance last weekend when they lost 0-1 at home to Nice, and if they keep playing like this then they will continue to lose games.
The African Nations Cup doesn’t have as much of an affect on these two teams with the only major absence being Sammy Traore of Auxerre. Strasbourg look set to be without key striker Eric Mouloungui who is injured. Preference definitely goes to Auxerre to win.
Leaning - home win
Match: Le Mans v Bordeaux 19/1/08 (20:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 2.55 2.88 2.75
The biggest shock in the midweek cup was undoubtedly Le Mans beating Lyon 1-0. It's hard to say exactly how this could happen, but it was one of those cup things where a team is really motivated to do well against the odds.
This performance will have taken quite a lot of energy out of Le Mans and it must be remembered that at this moment in time, they are very depleted in terms of squad condition. In addition to a few injuries they have lost some really important players to the African Nations Cup.
Last weekend they were outplayed by lowly Sochaux so it seemed as if they were about to start a downward trend. The Lyon victory would’ve given them some confidence, but facing Bordeaux now won't be easy.
The visitors played superbly last wee,k beating Auxerre 4-1, probably their best performance of the season. ‘Les Girondins’ are unbeaten in 5 games and still harbour ambitions of claming the title, but they must keep winning. They have the 3rd best away record in ligue 1, and should at least avoid defeat. Preference goes with the X2 bet.
Leaning X2
Match: Marseille v Valenciennes 19/1/08 (20:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 1.72 3.23 4.73
Both of these teams lost in the midweek cup so will have to try and hit back in the ligue. The loss to Auxerre was probably more disappointing to Marseille, who will have eyed the competition as an ideal chance to win some silverware and also as a route into Europe.
But this defeat wasn’t unexpected because Marseille have been badly affected by the African Nations Cup, losing some of their best players such as Tai Taiwo and Mamadou Niang. They looked poor away in Rennes last week and they could be tested once again this Sunday by Valenciennes.
But the visitors have their own problems, not least recovering from the nightmare 0-4 defeat to PSG in midweek. Away from home they are one of the worst teams in ligue 1 and have won just once all season. It seems here that this match will be contested by 2 teams who will be far from their best, so it could go either way.
The stingy bookies are far too short with Marseille at around 1.75: there is no value in that. Home advantage could be important and they are rightful favourites, but the best option is probably to refrain from betting because it‘s too unpredictable.
Leaning - no bet
Match: Metz v Monaco 19/1/08 (20:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 3.25 2.95 2.21
Although it’s only early in his reign, the introduction of new manager Yvon Pouliquen hascertainly breathed some fresh air into Metz. First they hammered Vesoul 6-1 in the French Cup, and then last weekend drew 1-1 away in Lille, ending a barren run of 6 consecutive ligue defeats. The team is playing much better and it took a 95th minute goal from Lille to deny them victory in that game. They face a virtually impossible task to avoid relegation, but the players are at least now showing that they are capable of some sort of fight.
The pressure once again will be upon the shoulders of their opponents this weekend, as Monaco will be expected to win. But it won't be easy, and the visitors have been known to be inconsistent this year. They also come here on the back of 3 consecutive away defeats, although did win at home to Lorient last week.
Metz do have the potential to play well and it seems as if the new manager has already got more out of his players than coach Francis De Taddeo. Pouliquen is a coach I rate very highly and its hardly a surprise that this has happened. I think Metz are capable of getting some points out of the match, so it’s worth gambling on the 1X bet at decent odds.
Leaning - 1X
Match: St Etienne v Rennes 19/1/08 (20:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 2.14 2.93 3.38
St Etienne have won just 2 of their last 10 matches and come into this clash on the back of 3 consecutive defeats. The pressure is starting to mount on coach Laurent Roussay and its important that the team get back to winning ways as soon as possible.
Normally at home they are strong, although the loss of a few players to the African Nations Cup appears to have hit them quite hard. Key midfielder Pascal Feindouno will be greatly missed once again. But St Etienne are still a pretty good home team and have lost just once in front of their own fans this year. That defeat came in their last match at Le Stade Geoffroy Guichard where they somehow succumbed to PSG 0-1. Last weekend they had plenty of possession against Valenciennes, but failed to make it count and didn’t create enough chances.
Against Rennes they will face an improving team, and one that beat Marseille 3-1 recently. Guy Lacombe appears to have got the team playing well and he will eye some points again this weekend.
Last year, Rennes won this match 3-1 and they would love a repeat result. However, due to their strength at home, preference will go to St Etienne and the 1X bet.
Leaning - 1X
Match: Sochaux v Lille 19/1/08 (20:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 2.22 2.91 3.25
This is a key relegation clash between two teams at the bottom of the ligue table.
Sochaux now have a new manager and Francois Gillot’s first game in charge ended in victory last weekend. Sochaux outplayed a depleted Le Mans side to win 2-0 and they will eye another 3 points this weekend. But the Montbeliard club have had some real problems at home this season and have only won once so far. Only Metz have a worse record in front of their own fans, so it’s a record they simply must change if they are to avoid relegation. There is enough quality in the squad though and they would appear to have more momentum than their opponents.
Lille could only draw 1-1 at home to lowly Metz last week and produced an awful performance. This is really a crunch game and home advantage could be important. This year, the Sochaux crowd has begun to get on the backs of the players, but now that they have a new manager in charge it may improve. Preference will go to the hosts, at least to avoid defeat.
Leaning - 1X
Match: Toulouse v Caen 19/1/08 (20:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 2.11 2.94 3.49
This looks to be a potentially tough match to predict, although Toulouse will hope that home advantage proves crucial. They lost last week in Lyon, although this was an expected defeat. ‘Les Violets’ produced a fairly good performance and will hope to carry some sort of momentum through into this game.
Prior to the loss they had gone on an unbeaten run of 4 matches,although they also suffered a French Cup defeat against lower ligue opposition. Toulouse have been badly affected by the African Nations Cup, and in addition to a few injuries and suspensions, the squad should be in poor condition once again. They are a hard side to predict and a lot rests on the shoulders of key striker, Johann Elmander.
Caen had had a poor season before they beat Toulouse a few months ago. Since then, they haven’t looked back and only lost 2 of their last 13 games. Now the question is exactly how much ambition they have left and whether or not they can challenge for European positions. They have perhaps been lucky in picking up some wins, but will do their best to keep things tight at the back. Key attacker, Yoan Gouffran returns from injury for the game which is a boost. It’s a really hard one to predict and could go either way - it's probably best to avoid betting.
Leaning - no bet
Match: Nice v Nancy 20/1/08 (18:00 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 2.33 2.87 3.09
This looks set to be a really hard match to predict and is capable of going either way. Nancy were expected to win in the midweek cup, but instead suffered a shock 0-3 defeat away in Lens. This was only their 3rd defeat of the season and was such a surprise, especially the magnitude of the loss. Maybe this result will be the start of their ‘bubble bursting’ and it will be important for them to get back on track this weekend in the ligue.
But a trip to the south coast is never easy and Nice are unbeaten at Le Stade Du Ray for over a year. Still, it's probably a good time to be playing against them because they miss a lot of players to the African Nations Cup. This wasn’t highlighted last week as they dominated Strasbourg, key midfielder, Ederson putting in an especially good performance.
But Nancy should be a much tougher test than Les Alsatians and if someone is to beat Nice at home, then it could quite easily happen this Sunday. I think overall we will see a very tight match with 0-0 a definite possibility. If anyone is to win, then 1 goal will probably be enough. The match is best left alone due to its unpredictable nature, although an under 2.5 goals is worth looking at.
Leaning - no bet
Match: Lens v Lyon 20/1/08 (20:55 CET)
Average odds (1X2): 4.04 3.07 1.89
Two teams who had contrasting fortunes in the midweek cup now face each other in the Sunday evening clash. But the results in midweek were not as expected, Lyon losing 0-1 in Le Mans and Lens beating Nancy 3-0.
For Lens, this was a complete surprise because they had been absolutely awful against PSG the previous weekend. Maybe the cup made the players extra motivated, but very few people saw it coming in any case.
Lyon on the other hand were disappointing in Le Mans and Alain Perrin (pictured) has demanded a vast improvement. He even said that a ligue 2 team might’ve beaten them , they were that disappointing in midweek. I expect the players to respond and Lyon to play much better in this game. Last season they thrashed Lens 4-0 in this fixture and completely blew them away. Lyon have the capability to do that to anyone in this ligue and its difficult to see how Lens can hurt them, especially without key striker Aruna Dindand, who is at the African Nations Cup.
The visitors will have been given a severe kick up the backside after the awful cup result, so they should hit back by claiming victory.
No comments:
Post a Comment