Getafe-Sevilla (Saturday January 19th, 7:00pm)Average odds (1X2): 2.57 3.16 2.64
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 2.02 1.73
'San Ricardo' was the golden boy of the Spanish media in the wake of the Betis-Getafe game, which Geta lost by 3-2. Betis' keeper Ricardo closed the doors and gave his team the victory. Getafe dominated the majority of the game and wasted clear occasions to score.
That's not much consolation for the Azulones, though. With 4 defeats and a victory in the last 5, Geta are just a point clear of the danger zone. Skilful striker Uche (African Cup) and mid Sousa (injured) are out, while important mid Pablo Hernández is doubtful. The regulars who were rested midweek in the cup are back.
Sevilla is the team suffering most from the African Cup, as key playersKanoute and Keita are out, as is squad striker Kone. Kanoute is a particularly huge absence, as everything seems to go through him and Luis Fabiano.
De Sanctis, Enzo Maresca, Luis Fabiano and Ernesto Chevantón didn’t practise normally in the midweek but all expected fit in the squad. Keeper Palop and left back Crespo remain sidelined.
A balanced game is expected. I can’t see a clear winner here, as Getafe are nothing if not unpredictable.
Leaning: No bet
Villarreal-Valencia (Saturday January 19th, 9:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 2.08 3.20 3.44
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 2.01 1.73
Nihat returned to the side and scored twice last weekend, helping Villarreal to overcome Depor in an amazing game. However, the Yellow Submarine did need extra time to get past Recre in the Copa midweek.
Still, with Nihat back the offence can be promising again, as it was the lack of goals to blame for recent bad results.
Mr. Pellegrini has to deal with four absences, as Matías Fernández, Jon Dhal Tomasson, Josico and Fabricio Fuentes are out, the latter for the rest of the season). Central defender Gonzalo Rodríguez has returned tothe squad after spending 7 months in the sidelines.
Meanwhile, Valencia lost at Atletico last Sunday in what was quite a game. Los ‘che’ dominated the whole match - except the first quarter - and wasted many hard-to-miss opportunities to score. Koeman is still searching for his best formation and tactics and had the opportunity to experiment in the cup midweek, to good effect. Zigic has netted 5 in the last month and has more options to play from now on. In more good news, Fernando Morientes and central Raúl Albiol are back in the squad, with Miguel Brito and long term sidelined Alexis Ruano to be the only players missing.
This is a regional derby, and one that Valencia are, perhaps surprisingly, in good stead for. Joaquin shouldn’t be playing in the peak of the attack and Marchena may not be as good as Albelda, but Valencia is improved and as they shown against Atletico, they can obtain a good result in Madrigal.
Leaning: X2
Osasuna-Athletic (Sunday January 20th, 4:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 2.12 3.15 3.37
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 2.11 1.65
It's a near-neighbours derby between Osasuna from Navarra and Athletic de Bilbao from Basque Country. It is the 2nd consecutive derby for Osasuna, following the dreadful home defeat against Racing, who only had to play well for 45 minutes in order to win. That defeat moved Osasuna into the deadzone. Corrales and Delporte are fit but Plasil is in doubt. Pandiani is definitely out, weakening the front line.
Athletic had to play extra time in the midweek before finally obtaining a penalty shot-out qualification against Espanyol in the cup, and this was another huge success following the wel- deserved home win against Sevilla in the liga. Keeper Gorka Iraizoz, however, isinjured and won’t play again this season, while important midfielder Orbaiz is doubtful.
Athletic have just lost once at the Reino de Navarra (fomerly El Sadar), having won and drawn three times since 2000. At this time being they enjoy much better form and obviously much higher morale and could escape Pamplona undefeated.
Leaning: X2
Zaragoza-Murcia (Sunday January 20th, 4:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 1.73 3.32 4.80
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 1.88 1.86
The 9 games winless run has seen los manos drop to just two points above of the danger zone, and because of the need for a ‘change in the air’, coach Victor Fernandez has been sacked. The new trainer is an ex-player, 38 year-old Ander Garitano, who was previously in charge of the youth team. His debut in the cup resulted in a 4-2 defeat at Racing, and now he must debut in front of an expectant home support. Keeper César and midfielder D'Alessandro are fit, while Aimar and a couple of long term injured teammates remain out.
Murcia are level on points with Zaragoza, making this game important for both teams. They had no luck at the Camp Nou against Barcelona and the final score (4-0) was too harsh. No important, new absenteesfor Mr. Lucas Alcaraz - just central defender Ochoa is out. Brazilian striker Adolfo Rosinei is a new transfer and may play.
‘New coach, certain victory,’ as a saying goes in Spain, and as this didn’t happen last Wednesdday in the cup it should happen now against Murcia. Zaragoza should finally end their poor run, but the odds are not at all generous.
Leaning: Home win
Levante-Mallorca (Sunday January 20th, 4:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 3.09 3.18 2.23
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 1.99 1.73
Levante have no stress at all, because relegation is almost certain and only a miracle could save them from playing in segunda the next season. This didn’t prevent them from giving a decent fight against champions Real Madrid, though, in a gmae that they only lost right at the death. Italian striker Riganó has also left the team following the departures of his compatriots Storari and Cirillo, and Brazilian Savio. Maybe this situation is better for Levante because now youngest and surely more motivated players can come in, rather than those who were demotivated due to a lack of payment. Tomassi is suspended.
The news that right winger Jonás Gutiérrez and top goalscorer Güiza are set to leave the team has overshadowed the cup qualification against Real in midweek. In fact it was known that Jonas wanted to leave but now this seems to finally be coming to fruition. Mallorca have to be focused in liga now, as a 6 games winless run has brought them just two points above the relegation limit.
Seeing Mallorca as favourites on the road is a bizarre situation, but perhaos understandable. Levante won’t give up fighting, at least for the time being, but sooner or later the empty seats will make an impact on the team. For now, we skip this game in terms of victor. It could be an over if Levante scores and I believe they will.
Leaning: Over 2,5
Almería-Deportivo (Sunday January 20th, 4:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 2.12 3.19 3.32
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 2.15 1.63
Almeria was the team that broke Espanyol’s winning run, and while Espanyol were poor, the southerners still deserved their win. Now they have the opportunity to grab another crucial three points in a game even more important than the one last Sunday. Mane, who is linked with Premier League teams (as is striker Negredo) is suspended, while right back Aitor López Rekarte is doubtful.
The recent defeats moved Deportivo into the penultimate place in the table, 4 points off the safety zone. They are used to playing better on the road, but recently they've started to face problems with the physical condition of some of their players, and their defence remains vulnerable.
Coach Lotina is playing for his job in this game. He has only one change in the squad as Alberto Lopo is back and Pablo Amo suspended. What becomes of feuding goalkeepers Gustavo Munua and Dudu Aouate remains to be seen.
Almeria were too strong for Espanoyl and Sevilla. I don’t think they will be afraid of Depor.
Leaning: Home win
Valladolid-Espanyol (Sunday January 20th, 4:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 2.48 3.15 3.05
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 2.01 1.72
With many changes in the starting XI and some justified complaints against the referee – who didn't give what seemed to be a clear penalty in injury time - Valladolid were eliminated in the cup midweek against Atletico and now can focus on their liga campaign. With 5 wins, 4 draws and just 2 defeats since October 28th, Valladolid lie comfortable in the 9th place, 4 points clear of the danger zone. All the regulars who were rested midweek are back in the squad.
Espanyol were stunned in Andalusia against newcomers Almeria in what was a dire performance. Almeria were much better for the entire game and deserved to win.
Espanyol paid for the loss of their on-form midfielder, Ivan De La Pena, who also missed the midweek cup elimination at the hands of Athletic de Bilbao and is doubtful for this encounter.
Of course this is a no bet game.
Leaning: No bet
Betis-Recreativo (Sunday January 20th, 4:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 2.08 3.17 3.43
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 2.09 1.66
Paco Chaparro has wisely left the cup out of Betis’ priorities, because los verdiblancos have to fight till the end to avoid relegation. His side was also lucky to have his goalkeeper Ricardo in excellent form last Sunday when they hosted Getafe. They grabbed the 3-pointer and now face the crucial game against Recre in a decent mood, the Copa loss to Valencia already behind him. David Rivas is out for the rest of the campaign, while Juanito and Xisco are suspended. All the regulars who were rested against Valencia (many of them) returned to the squad for training.
Since November 24th and the defeat at the Camp Nou, Recretivo de Huelva have been undefeated and have their formation to thank. Mr. Munoz used the 4-2-3-1 with skilful and speedy Sinama Pongolle as the lone striker and achieved great results. However, Recre didn’t convince with their last performance. They lost their first game since last Sunday, away toValladolid.
It's a crucial game for the two Andalusian neighbours, who are both just one point above the danger zone. Recent history shows no away win, and I believe that this won’t change now.
Leaning: 1X
Atlético-R. Madrid (Sunday January 20th, 6:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 2.72 3.17 2.48
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 1.84 1.90
With the majority of their regular players available, Atletico obtained qualification for the last eight of the Copa in the midweek clash against Valladolid. This followed the liga victory in front of the home fans against Valencia. But in both encounters the success was a hair's breadth from failure, and Atletico should feel lucky achieving those results. Reyes and Jurado are doubtful for this one, while Leo Franco, Seitaridis and Zé Castro are sidelined.
Schuster’s Real is the greatest ever at this stage in the season (since Liga reconstruction), having closed the first round on 47 points, winning 15, losing two and drawing two out of 19 games. However, the cup elimination has denied los merengues' players the chance win a treble reward of 900,000 euros each.
Ahead the city derby, Bernd Schuster is facing several squad problems, as regular central defender Pepe is a serious doubt, Diarra is missing - he's at the Copa África - and Gabriel Heinze, Javier Saviola, Christoph Metzelder, Arjen Robben, Roberto Soldado and Javier Balboa are sidelined. Raul and Casillas were rested midweek and are available.
Real are missing many players, but the team’s main body is available. Their performances are not the best possible, but they are playing with engines merely ticking over. I believe that they will enter the Vicente Calderon determined to win this, and will eventually do so.
Leaning: X2
Barcelona-Racing (Sunday January 20th, 8:00pm)
Average odds (1X2): 1.28 4.80 10.64
Average odds (o/u 2,5 goals): 1.63 2.14
Barcelona showed against Recre last weekend and Sevilla in the midweek that they can play well in both attack and defence. When playing at the Camp Nou, there are very few teams in Spain that can compete them. The squad returned to practice on Thursday and there was no Ronaldinho, who is still suffering from his knee injury. On the contrary, Messi was present and may have a few minutes against Racing. Samuel Eto'o and Touré Yaya are at the Copa Africa, while José Edmílson and goalkeeper Albert Jorquera are sidelined. José Manuel Pinto came on loan from Celta to cover Jorquera’s absence.
Racing are playing without three key players: the influential forward and captain Pedro Munitis, co-striker Ebi Smolarek, and first choice keeper Tono. Yet the team is winning, and already coach Marcelino has become an idol in Santander. Racing are in 6th place in the table, 5 points clear of 7th place team Valencia and have qualified for the copa’s quarter finals. Central defender Oriol and left back Luis Fernandez returned in midweek, but this game comes too early for Munitis. Smolarek is doubtful and Ayoze suspended.
Despite the fact that Barca are amazing at their home ground, I will skip this game because Racing is capable of everything. An "over" is tempting, but the odds don't make it worth it. The home win is terrible value.
No comments:
Post a Comment