Genoa-AtalantaAverage odds (1X2) 2.19 2.91 3.50
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 1.99 1.76
Both tied in 9th place with 22 points (but the guests have played one match less), Genoa and Atalanta will face each other on Saturday afternoon in a match that will be affected by circumstances as Atalanta president Ivan Ruggeri has been fighting for his life since last Wednesday.
The hosts come off one of the best wins of their season, a 2-1 triumph in Rome against Lazio, while the Orobici suffered a home setback against the other team of the Capital, second placed Roma. In both cases it was a confirmation of the trend (positive for the hosts, negative for the guests) already shown before the break, and therefore our preference should go to the Rossoblu.
However big question marks remain about Atalanta’s attitude (Will they be focused or not? Will they put in extra effort for their President?) convince us to stay away from this one. If you believe in the first option, however, it must be said that the odds on the home win are quite good. The hosts are without Honduras’ mercurial forward Leon, while the Orobici recover key skipper Doni but will miss two more suspended players, defender Carrozzieri and striker Langella.
Our choice: no bet
Fiorentina-Torino
Average odds (1X2) 1.48 3.63 7.49
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 1.92 1.82
On paper, this is definitely a no-brainer. Fiorentina (5th place, 31 pts) come from a morale boosting win in Parma, their second triumph in a row, and will be hoping to overtake fourth-placed Udinese, who will play a very difficult home match against Milan.
On the other side, troubled Torino (16th place, 17 pts) are in a complete mess, following the umpteenth negative result of their season, a home setback against Livorno, and it’s really hard to see them giving the Viola any kind of trouble. The midweek 0-4 Coppa Italia thrashing against Roma won’t likely help the Granata cause either.
In a few words, this should be a pretty easy home win, although the odds are very short. Only defender Dainelli is sidelined for the hosts, while Torino will be without a bunch of injured players, including their most talented player, forward Rosina.
Our choice: Fiorentina
Juventus-Sampdoria
Average odds (1X2) 1.46 3.73 7.36
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 1.93 1.75
Following the difficult trip in Catania, where they only managed to grab a last-minute draw, another difficult opponent awaits Juventus (3rd place, 36 pts). The Bianconeri will try not to lose further ground from the top of the table by hosting healthy Sampdoria (7th place, 24 pts), who come from a convincing home win, a 3-0 over Palermo, as well as from the qualification to the Coppa Italia quarterfinals.
These two matches confirmed the very good shape the Blucerchiati had already showed before the break, and therefore Juve’s task is going to be pretty tough. Rather than the home win (the odds are too short) or a positive result for Samp (Mazzarri’s men are far less effective on the road than in front of their fans), we like the over here.
Juve’s offensive power is well known, and so are their recent defensive problems (six goals conceded in the last four outings), while the guests have been scoring for fun lately. Three injured defenders for the hosts (Chiellini, Zebina and Andrade), who will also miss suspended midfielder Nocerino, while the lone sidelined player for the gusts is long-term injured veteran striker Montella.
Our choice: over 2,5 goals
Livorno-Empoli
Average odds (1X2) 2.06 2.90 3.89
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 2.07 1.66
A very important Tuscan derby takes place in Livorno, where the hosts (13th place, 18 pts and one match less) will be hoping to extend their impressive eight-match positive streak and keep on climbing the table as they host Empoli (17th place, 16 pts), who come from a disappointing home draw against Reggina.
Two points collected in the first ten matches, sixteen in the following eight: the number clearly explain how incredible Livorno’s metamorphosis has been, and the credit definitely goes to new coach Camolese, who replaced Orsi after eight rounds and literally transformed the team. Last Sunday, his umpteenth tactical masterpiece allowed the Amaranto to collect a fundamental away win over struggling Torino, and even though Empoli are not that easy to defeat it’s impossible not to give full confidence to the high-flying hosts, especially with these odds.
Five midfielders are unavailable for this contest, three for the home team (E.Filippini, Giannichedda and Bergvold), two for the guests (Giacomazzi and Marchisio).
Our choice: Livorno
Napoli-Lazio
Average odds (1X2) 2.11 2.96 3.68
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 2.02 1.72
Three days after having faced each other in the Coppa Italia 1/8 finals (with Lazio advancing to the following round), Napoli (8th place, 23 pts) and Lazio (13th place, 18 pts) will face each other in a very delicate match for both teams.
The elimination from the national cup was the second straight disappointment for the Partenopei, who were hammered last Sunday in San Siro against Milan, and the mood in Naples isn’t exactly a good one. On their part, the guests must try to collect another positive result, as their position in the table is still very dangerous, and bounce back from the tough home loss they suffered last week against Genoa.
All in all, this is a really difficult match to predict: anything can happen, and therefore it’s better to stay away, also because there are several key absentees by both sides: striker Zalayeta and playmaker Gargano are suspended for the hosts, while the Biancocelesti will miss the usual bunch of players (Rocchi, Mudingayi, Makinwa, Meghni, Firmani).
Our choice: no bet
Palermo-Siena
Average odds (1X2) 1.57 3.42 6.41
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 1.91 1.82
Palermo (6th place, 25 pts) will be hoping to put a tough defeat behind them as they host Siena (18th place, 14 pts) at the Renzo Barbera. Last Sunday’s tough 0-3 setback in Genoa against Sampdoria, as well as the elimination in the Coppa Italia 1/8 finals against Udinese, were a big blow for the Sicilians’ European dreams, especially because they ended 2007 with plenty of confidence.
A supposedly easy opponent like Siena might be what it takes in order for them to bounce back. The guests, however, keep on fighting very hard, as they showed last week against almighty Inter, and will surely give the Rosanero a tough time. The odds on the home win are a bit too short here: no bet for us. Full roster for Palermo, Siena without midfielder Galloppa and veteran defender Bertotto.
Our choice: no bet
Reggina-Cagliari
Average odds (1X2) 1.89 3.03 4.41
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 2.07 1.66
The match between Reggina (19th place, 14 pts) and Cagliari (last place, 10 pts) will be the most typical of the six-pointers. Both teams are struggling at the bottom of the table, but the comparison ends here. Healthy Reggina collected four points in the last two matches and managed to recover some ground, as the safety zone is now just three points above, while the Sardinians, who are on a five-match losing streak, just can’t show any sign of reaction and already seem doomed.
It’s not going to be easy for Ulivieri’s men, of course, but this match is too important for them and we don’t think they will miss this chance in front of their fans. Reggina will miss striker Joelson and offensive midfielder Vigiani, while skipper Conti and striker Larrivey are sidelined for the guests.
Our choice: Reggina
Roma-Catania
Average odds (1X2) 1.30 4.55 10.51
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 1.70 2.06
Boosted by a fundamental away win over Atalanta and by the qualification to the Coppa Italia quarterfinals, Roma (2nd place, 39 pts) will be eager to maintain and maybe consolidate their second place by hosting healthy Catania (9th place, 22 pts) at the Stadio Olimpico.
Coming from a couple of very negative performances in their last two trips, Spalletti’s men were really convincing in Bergamo, and they will likely need another very good performance if they want to collect another win and keep on hoping for an improbable comeback on league leaders Inter.
In fact, Catania keep up their good form: last Sunday the Etnei almost defeated Juventus in front of their fans, and apart from a poor outing against Reggina before the break they have been showing plenty of impressive performances over the last two months. The home win is likely, but the odds are not worth the risk: it’s better to stay away. Right-backs Panucci and Tonetto are suspended for the hosts, while Catania will only miss veteran defender Stovini.
Our choice: no bet
Udinese-Milan
Average odds (1X2) 4.28 3.14 1.88
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 1.81 1.95
This is probably the most attractive and important match of the entire round, as Udinese (4th place, 32 pts) host Milan (12th place, 21 pts and three matches to recover) in a match with plenty at stake for both teams.
The hosts aren’t a surprise anymore and are definitely established among the top teams of the league, but it will be hard for them to confirm their good shape against an opponent that looked really impressive in the last outing. With Ronaldo, and new wonder Pato finally making his debut, Milan were devastating to say the least and demolished Napoli, thus showing that the fourth place is definitely within their reach, in spite of the poor start to the season.
Udinese’s defence is very well organized, but it’s going to be a very long day for them; on the other hand, Quagliarella and Di Natale should give Milan plenty of problems too. The odds on the away win are too short and definitely disrespectful toward the hosts’ strength: for the reasons mentioned above, the best choice here is the over 2,5 goals.
Defender Felipe and reserve striker Pepe are suspended for the home team, while Milan will be without key playmaker Pirlo, who serves a one-match ban, as well as the injured Inzaghi and Jankulovski.
Our choice: over 2,5 goals
Inter-Parma
Average odds (1X2) 1.21 5.45 13.28
Average odds (over/under 2,5 goals) 1.68 2.07
Inter (1st place, 46 pts) keep on winning and winning, and even though the first part of the season has yet to finish it looks like Mancini’s men have already sealed their third Scudetto in a row. The question is always the same: who is going to stop them?
Sooner or later this will happen, but it’s pretty hard to expect this to occur on Sunday evening, as the Nerazzurri host Parma (13th place, 18 pts) at San Siro. The guests are a pretty poor away team, and come from a rare loss in front of their fans (where they collected 16 out of their 18 points), but on the other hand they will be boosted by the arrival of highly-rated striker Lucarelli from Shakthar Donetsk.
However, this shouldn’t be enough in order to stop the black&blue powerhouse: home win for us, but the odds are obviously too short. Good chances for the over as well: Inter could cover it by themselves, but Mancini’s men sometimes concede too much (as they did last Sunday in Siena) and Parma should now be more effective upfront. Home team without Figo, Vieira, Samuel and Dacourt, while Parma coach will only miss defender Paci.
Our choice: over 2,5 goals
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